How the model computes
For each year y from 0 to horizon:
capex(y) = total_CAPEX / construction_years if y < construction_years
= 0 otherwise
ramp(y) = min((y - construction_years + 1) / ramp_years, 1) if y >= construction_years
inflation(y) = (1 + inflation_rate)^(y - construction_years)
revenue(y) = annual_revenue * ramp(y) * inflation(y)
opex(y) = annual_opex * inflation(y)
net(y) = revenue(y) - opex(y) - capex(y)
NPV = sum over y of net(y) / (1 + discount_rate)^y
IRR is solved with bisection on the discount rate that drives NPV to zero. Payback is the year at
which cumulative undiscounted net cash flow turns non-negative. Break-even launches/year is the
multiplier on current launch demand at which steady-state revenue equals steady-state OPEX
(i.e., the rate where annual operations become self-sustaining ignoring the sunk CAPEX).
Default value benchmarks
Hover the ⓘ next to any line item to see the benchmark source
and rationale. Default values are anchored to public benchmarks: FAA AC 150/5320 cost guidance for
airfield work; FAA AST published spaceport license fees and Part 420 documentation; comparable
facility data from Spaceport America, Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport, Mojave Air & Space Port,
and Pacific Spaceport Complex Alaska; BLM rural Utah land sale records; and FAA AST commercial space
launch market projections.
These defaults are reasonable starting points, not committed cost estimates.
Real engineering cost estimates require site-specific surveys, vehicle-specific propellant farm
sizing, and tenant negotiations. Use this tool to explore the shape of the answer and
identify which assumptions need rigorous costing.
Economic impact methodology — two layers
Layer A — Rooted (RIMS II on line items). The State Investment Impact band, the Phase-Split table,
and the Activity-by-Year chart apply BEA Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) Type II
multipliers to the CAPEX and OPEX cash flows already in the model. Type II multipliers capture three effects:
direct (the spaceport’s own spending), indirect (its supply chain), and
induced (re-spending of wages by the workers in those firms).
Multipliers come from BEA’s published industry-summary tables: NAICS 237
(Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction) for build, and a blend of NAICS 3364
(Aerospace Mfg) and NAICS 5417 (Scientific R&D) for operations. Defaults are
U.S. industry-summary midpoints from the RIMS II User’s Guide (Bureau of Economic Analysis,
2024 ed.). Override any coefficient with a Utah-state custom-region value if you procure one from BEA
(~$300 per region-by-industry order).
Layer B — Cluster activity proxy. RIMS II only captures activity driven by the spaceport’s own
spending. It does not capture activity that the spaceport’s existence proxies for:
anchor tenants co-locating, suppliers attracted to the cluster, launch-day visitor spend, or net-new household
spending from relocated workforce. Layer B models these explicitly as activity-volume-driven items
(per launch, per test campaign-day, per FTE, lump per anchor tenant), then runs them through the same
operations RIMS II multiplier. Each driver is itemized and editable so reviewers can scrutinize separately.
The headline always shows the rooted (Layer A) figure first; the proxied (A+B) figure is shown as
“+” alongside.
State-investment leverage. Each CAPEX line carries a publicShare %
(editable inline next to the value). The state-investment headline is the sum of
value × publicShare across active CAPEX items; the leverage ratio divides
lifecycle activity by this denominator. The full CAPEX value still flows through the Type II
multiplier — multipliers act on every dollar of spending, regardless of who paid.
What this is and isn’t. Type II + cluster proxy is the standard, defensible way
to translate infrastructure spend into a regional economic-activity headline — the same framework that
supports state economic-development analyses, Federal Register impact statements, and
legislative briefings. It is not a dynamic CGE model: it does not capture crowd-out of other Utah
industries, displacement of existing aerospace activity to the new site, or general-equilibrium price effects.
The leverage ratio compares to a counterfactual of zero spending, not to alternative uses of the same dollars.
Job-years are person-years of employment, not permanent jobs; tax recapture is state+local on earnings only.